Every time I take a peek into the Web analytics accounts for a blog or especially an online store I see something I consider to be VERY frightening! The percentage of traffic and sales being derived from traffic from only one source is frequently 50-70+%!
Can you imagine what would happen to your blog or business if your traffic and sales suddenly dropped by 50-70%!
Don’t think it can happen? It does all the time. The most famous blogger Darren Rowse of ProBlogger and TwiTip wrote an excellent post about his own experience of losing two-thirds of his traffic and income. He has covered this subject several times:
- What Should You Do If Your Google Ranking Falls and You Lose All Your Traffic? (Nov. 29 2006)
- What To Do When Your Google Traffic Disappears (Nov 15, 2005)
- Google’s Christmas Present – OUCH! (Dec 20, 2004)
- Google’s Update Chaos Continues (Dec 28, 2004)
Do you notice anything about the dates of these posts? Remember in the post just prior to this that I mentioned pay per click bid prices having artificially high minimums? Those coincide with organic listings swinging wildly but mostly dropping. (Some have to go up for others to go down.)
If your business normally sees a major increase in sales – or even makes the majority of sales – during the holiday shopping season what would YOU do if your traffic dropped in the middle of the optimum sales period because your organic listings suddenly dropped or completely disappeared from the first page of the SERPS?
How long have I been warning about the dangers of having all your traffic and sales coming from the same source? Have you done anything about it yet?
Still not convinced? There are others who have recognized how dangerous this is. The featured home page discussion at WebmasterWorld (Mar 27, 2009) is about Making Your Business SE (Search Engine) Proof. I know you may be busy blogging or running your online store so you may not see all the uproar whenever there is a new Google Dance.
These issues are not new as this excerpt from Gazumped by Google Florida Update from Nov 25, 2003 indicates (note that the date of this post also coincides with the holiday shopping season):
“Thousands of web pages have been suddenly demoted in the Google search results, primarily on the main commercial search terms for which they targeted their pages to be replaced by other sites who, in the main, referred to the search term obliquely. Several were the main shopping portals or business directories which gave listings for companies who may provide the services requested, many were not. “
Techcrunch has even suggested What An AntiTrust Case Against Google Might Look Like. For several days now I have been searching for specific posts, forums, or pages to illustrate the current state of online sales. I wanted to provide more real life examples from etailers.
With the enormous number of online stores that would seem to be easy to research. Have no Internet retailers asked for input since 2007 when their sales dropped? Do they not visit forums any more or ask around among their peers? Perhaps that information is not as easily located if the discussions take place on Twitter or other Social Networks or maybe it is not easily found in the indexes?
Whatever the cause I have decided to publish this post as is and hope that those involved in ecommerce will share their stories and experiences in the comments here.
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LATEST ON GOOGLE SEARCH ALGORITHM:
- Important New Insights with graph and details from Randfish at SEOmoz – How Google’s Ranking Algorithm Has Changed Over Time (Apr 9, 2009)
- SEOBook: Big Brands: Google Brand Promotion: New Search Engine Rankings Place Heavy Emphasis on Branding (Feb 25, 2009) – even though this post is older I have placed it second because it contains so much important detail on how Google has changed and how those changes affect small businesses and blogs.
- SEMReportCard: Breaking News: Google Algorithm Update Places BRANDS at Top of Results for Geo-Targeted Searches (Feb 27, 2009)
- Why Google’s Ranking Factors Have Changed Over Time (Apr 9, 2009)
ONLINE RETAILERS REPORTING TRAFFIC DECLINES:
- Answers.com Reports Traffic Down 28% After Google Algorithm Change (Aug 2. 2007)
GOOGLE DANCES:
- Niche Marketing: Page Rank and Doing the Google Dance (Mar 29, 2009)
- What is the Google Dance (Mar 5, 2009)
- What Happened to My Google Ranking: Explaining the Google Dance – easy version (2004)
- Google Dance Syndrome Strikes Again (Dec 1, 2003)
- WebmasterWorld Forum – Google Rankings Fluctuating Wildly (Aug 2003)
- Coping with GDS: Google Dance Syndrome (Jun 3, 2003)
DEALING WITH DROPPING SEARCH TRAFFIC:
- AimClear – Attainable SEO: Page Strength Versus SERPs Difficulty (Mar 6, 2009)
- AimClear – Universal Search: Optimizing for Blended SERPS (Dec 10, 2008)
- Search Engine Land – How to (Kind of) Buy a #1 Organic Search Ranking on Google (Nov 8, 2007)
- SEOmoz: 90% of the Ratings Factor Lies in These Four Factors (Sep 26,2007)
- Search Engine Guide – The Risk of Over-Reliance on Google (Oct 31, 2006)
- Search Engine Guide – Saving Your Business From Algorithm Shift Part 2 Paid Search Advertising (Jul 18, 2005) – Be sure to read our post on the Dangers of PPC Advertising
- Search Engine Guide – Saving Your Business From Algorithm Shift Part 1; Using Press Releases (Jul 14, 2005)
- Search Engine Guide – Search Engine Algorithm Quandaries (Jul 1, 2005)
- Search Engine Guide – How to Weather Google Algorithm Changes (Jun 22, 2005)
ECOMMERCE PREDICTIONS:
- Bloomberg citing Forrester Research: U.S. Online Sales Grew 11% in First Quarter (Apr 8, 2009)
- Despite Economic Downturn, Outlook for eCommerce in 2009 Still Bright (Mar 10, 2009)
- Online Retail Could Reach $156B in 2009 (Jan 29, 2009)
The above predictions are far different than the results of the Merchant Circle Small Business Economic Stimulus Survey (Feb 25, 2009). The answers to this question are of particular concern:
Month over month, how would you say sales and revenue for your local business have changed?
Severe Decline 31.5% (3,411)
Moderate Decline 41.6% (4,509)
No Change 13.6% (1,471)
Moderate increase 12.3% (1,331)
Strong Increase 1.6% (178)
Total survey respondents who answered that their sales and revenue had declined: 73.1%
Survey participants who answered this question 10,830
Number who skipped this question 49Total respondents 10,879
NOTE: The question specifically asks about LOCAL business. We have no way of knowing how many of those local businesses are brick and mortar, have ecommerce stores, or operate exclusively online.
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More Marketing Strategies for Small Businesses
- Tired of focusing on SEO or just want some great new ideas to work on? Check out the 115 Marketing Strategies for Small Business from the Toilet Paper Entrepreneur Blog.
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Its time for me to change my tactics, I guess. My blog lives and dies with SE and not by referring sites and links. Thanks for this post.
Tnomeralc web design toys’s last blog post..Cavitenio and Cavitenia Bloggers
Twitter: GrowMap
April 13, 2009 at 1:33 pm
@Gagan It appears that Google is rolling these changes out to make them less obvious as they often do. One very large (for a small businesses’) ecommerce store that allows me analytics access is seeing an ongoing gradual decline of traffic.
This reminds me of that old story about putting a frog in water and gradually raising the heat. While small businesses are eventually going to notice, without a major outcry most Internet users will keep patronizing Google to the great demise of who knows how many small businesses.
The real solution would be to have an independent open source alternative Search Engine developed and then direct a grass-roots movement to get users to switch. While that is a major hurdle it could possibly be done if enough were willing to get behind the effort.
@Sarah The problem we all have is that we don’t really have a choice. What traffic Google does not directly control (organic search, AdWords, other Internet real estate) they indirectly control by controlling traffic to all other sites.
THIS is why so many in years past have repeatedly warned about the dangers of monopolies. More and more I realize that the illusion of competition between Corporations that are not actually competitors has lulled most into a false sense of security.
That has led to what is now almost total apathy towards the dangers of monopolies altogether! Just as Wal-Mart came into small towns, put the neighborhood merchants out of business, and can now charge whatever they choose because they’re the only store in town – Google is now in a position to do the same thing online.
We collectively created the current economic state through selfishness. When we are willing to save money by buying products at below their reasonable worth at the expense of the poor of other countries – instead of supporting independent small online and local businesses – we created a contracting economy.
What else could possibly happen? We can either care about others and be willing to pay what something is worth – thereby creating more abundance for all – or we can continue to think “as long as I’ve got mine” and buy cheap.
It should finally be painfully obvious to everyone what happens when competition drives down prices AND WAGES – AND BENEFITS – contracting the economy and leading to spreading poverty for almost all!
InternetStrategist’s last blog post..Promote Your Business Without Cash
You bring up a good point about putting most of your eggs in one basket and a very interesting observation regarding the timing of the Google changes. I do think that working on organic search should be a priority for most small businesses if they don’t have a lot of corporate competitors. But all businesses should always be looking into as many ways to be found as possible. That includes PPC, social networking, etc. Also, Isabelle has a very good point in that you should diversify your organic keywords to avoid huge traffic drops.
Great Post , Google results are changing very quickly these days and websites can easily drop up to 20-30 places. So we should not rely completely on search engines for traffic we have to use more traditional methods like building relationships to get more sales
Twitter: GrowMap
April 12, 2009 at 11:50 pm
@Mohibkh You’re welcome.
@Isabelle Yes, having many organic listings is one strategy that all businesses would do well to implement; however, if Google slams your entire domain or decides to add local listings to the top of every search result page that drives many of your listings out of prime positions you’re still going to be hurting for traffic.
@Brian Thank you. Many years of experience and understanding how computers, databases and search engines work all help. I have been in the computer industry since the mid-’70s and learned to search in the days when boolean searches were the ONLY kind.
Fortunately for John he was famous before his site got slapped. What about all those who never made it to famous? They must get found in other ways now.
I am far more concerned for small ecommerce businesses than I am for bloggers although they are also affected. Imagine having a business that has been consistently growing that suddenly loses a huge percentage of business without warning?
That happens intermittently and I predict it will be happening more often to more businesses. The recent changes that favor specific Corporations over everyone else are bound to have a serious effect as are the ramifications of those changes on the next holiday shopping season. More on that in a future post.
Twitter: HotBlogTips
April 12, 2009 at 9:37 pm
Wow GrowMap, I’m truly impressed with those resources. You are a researching expert.
I thing a great example is John Chow. A lot of people seem to dislike him but he is a perfect example of loosing ground from Google. Proof that it happens and also proof there is life without Google. Search John Chow on Google and we would think his site would top the list. There’s a whole story about the ‘what’ and ‘why’ but it certainly helps support your post. Not that you needed any support, you are definitely on top of your game.
Brian’s last blog post..Zero To Three In 90 Days – Thanks Flickr!
Twitter: twelper
April 12, 2009 at 6:21 am
I agree, but with one caveat. If you can diversify your organic traffic across hundreds and thousands of long-tail keywords, you will be in a much more defensible position than someone who is targeting one or two high traffic keywords. This is something you can implement now, instead of wishing there was a google alternative.
Isabelle’s last blog post..Vitamin B3 Cholesterol Remedy Resurfaces
Hi It’s nice information.Thanks for giving me this information.Thank you.
Twitter: GrowMap
April 11, 2009 at 10:58 pm
@Wil Search traffic will always convert best and that is why this is so dangerous. There is a very obvious reason for that. Someone actively searching for what someone offers is much more likely to be interested in buying.
Clicking on something from a Social Networking or other content site is usually done out of curiosity. Even if the person visiting might eventually be interested they are probably not wanting to buy RIGHT NOW.
We sincerely need more options. An open source search engine sponsored by someone with very deep pockets that is dedicated to staying independent would be the best choice.
InternetStrategist’s last blog post..Do YOUR Blogging Goals Include Monetization: Benefits Our Readers Receive
Twitter: SpotCoolStuff
April 11, 2009 at 9:36 pm
I totally agree with this post. Figuring out what to do about it is the tough part. I’ve found that my most valuable traffic comes from Google. I can (and do) work on getting traffic from sources like social networking sites, for example, but people from those sources don’t spend as much time on my site and aren’t as likely to return.
Wil’s last blog post..8 Alternative Powered Motorcycles
Twitter: GrowMap
April 11, 2009 at 11:16 am
@Kai Lo There are two main reasons businesses focus on search: 1) Someone actively searching is FAR more likely to buy 2) The volume of traffic from search engines dwarfs any amount of traffic you can CONSISTENTLY send from Social Networking sites.
To survive businesses and bloggers are going to have to use every resource and drive traffic from as many sources as possible.
@Matt When people talk or write about organic traffic they would usually be speaking about major search engines because those are what are being optimized for by Search Engine Optimization / Search Engine Marketers.
The other sources you mention are better than regular search and far too many small businesses are neglecting to use them effectively.
That is why there is so much content here under Local Search and I feature a link to the easiest to understand information on it in the pages at the top right of every page.
I will link this comment (the word GrowMap above this comment) to that page. You may find some additional places to list yourself by clicking through to the links at the bottom of that page.
I provide a form to collect all the data you need that includes tips on maximizing keywords and reach and links directly to the submission pages.
I know YOU know how to get there and find the links; I am so explicit for the new readers who may not.
InternetStrategist’s last blog post..Buy 1 Cheap Print Ad – Get Free Online Ads
I guess when I say “Organic” traffic, I’m also including the social networking sites (like Yelp.com). A lot of my business comes from Review sites (City Search, City Voter, Google Maps, etc). With the Local Business Center listing, I’m concurrently listed at 1-B and then my regular organic listing at #2 or #3. Its a win-win because I’ve usually got 2 places in the Page One SERP. If there’s a Google Dance, the Local “Google Maps” is there as a back-up.
Twitter: blogaboutnothin
April 10, 2009 at 1:26 pm
This is why I focus more time on social networking websites than worrying too much about SEO. Focusing way too much time on SEO is like putting all your eggs in one basket.
Kai Lo’s last blog post..Squidoo Traffic and Backlink
Twitter: GrowMap
April 9, 2009 at 11:49 pm
@Matt While some do gain and others lose, the main point of this post is that having 70% of your traffic coming from the same source is EXTREMELY hazardous, especially when that source regularly shuffles the deck.
The recent Google updates do favor local businesses and Corporations AND you have a unique niche which probably has no competition from any Corporation so you may benefit. More on that soon. That does not change the fact that you could also suffer.
Even more important to online retailers – and not as critical for you – is that they have a specific time every year during which being found is most important. As the timing of the drops ProBlogger experienced illustrate, they often coincide with the time they experience their largest sales opportunities.
InternetStrategist’s last blog post..We Miss The Golden Days of the Internet – Pay Per Click Advertising Circa 2003
Its an interesting article, but its one-sided: my business is entirely dependent on Organic traffic, I’ve never used PPC, and I’m having my best year ever in 2009.
Although I’m wary of Google Dances, I’ve been treated very well by the search engines lately!
Twitter: GrowMap
April 9, 2009 at 1:41 pm
@Lokale Everyone needs to diversify; however, that is getting vastly more difficult.
@MikeTek What I post is a combination of experience and research. I share the best sources in the most relevant posts. My experience is primarily assisting very small businesses, some mostly offline and others exclusively online.
The serious issue they all have in common regarding their online visitors is the increasing difficulty of diversifying caused by the near-monopoly of organic and paid search by one company.
Even when a business has other sources of traffic, THOSE sources are also 60-70% reliant on Google. Although unlikely it is possible that all pages leading to them could be unlisted at once – which is why no business should sell only one product and all need extensive numbers of individually indexed pages.
Most of the businesses I work with the most operate exclusively or almost completely online. They are highly unlikely to survive huge drops in traffic.
I am already researching a new post about Local Listings driving organic results down in the SERPs. It will be extremely important to all businesses and especially those that operate exclusively online.
Internet Strategist’s last blog post..Promote Your Business Without Cash
Twitter: MikeTek
April 9, 2009 at 10:23 am
Loads of resources in this post – my head hurts trying to get it around them all.
It’s absolutely imperative to develop a defensible traffic stream.
There are parallels in the business world. If you have a single client or vendor who either delivers or fulfills the lion’s share of your business you have a serious risk. The general rule of thumb is never to receive more than 30% of your business from a single source – I think applying that percentage to the web is a good idea.
Of course, your website, and traffic, have to fit into your entire business model. There are plenty of businesses who can survive, even thrive, without the web (although the number is declining). For these businesses a drop in Google traffic hurts, but it isn’t the end of the world.
The point is: take a good look at your business sources. If you’re running an eCommerce business you traffic is everything – and relying on Google not to shift their algorithm is a shaky strategy to say the least.
MikeTek’s last blog post..8 Resources on Using Psychology for Web Marketing
Thinking this way is useful for folks earning solely on their blogs. I have no problem with that – Polish adsense income is too low to be only source of money. I just have to diversify. Not only Internet but real estate is involved too.
Lokale Gryfino’s last blog post..Sprzeda? mieszkania 3-pokojowego
Twitter: GrowMap
April 8, 2009 at 10:09 pm
@T.M. Harris. Welcome and thank you for your comment. Thanks to the new Twitter field Derek installed I was able to follow you at Twitter – which makes me wonder how you saw this post.
The worst thing about this issue is that there is no easy way to avoid it because it is due to the virtual monopoly that Google has on search and paid search.
Internet Strategist’s last blog post..Blog Traffic Up 54.87% in the Last 30 Days: Our Proven Traffic Improvement Strategy
Twitter: tm_harris
April 8, 2009 at 9:07 pm
Hey, very good article indeed! I think some people need to wake up and realize that they can’t put all of the ‘traffic eggs’ in one basket…especially around Easter!
Keep up the good work!
T.M. Harris
tmharris.net
T.M. Harris’s last blog post..The “Work At Home” Niche is a LIE
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